Monday 31 October 2011

You Can't Handle the Stupid: Stanley Cup Finals Prediction


as you may (or may not) know, I wrote a rather glowing piece on the Toronto Maple Leafs last weekend.

That will go a long way to explaining why I'm picking them to win the Prince of Whales Trophy as the Eastern Conference Champs in the playoffs.  The other reason is... um... well... I have no idea.  Just a feeling.

But, their opponent in the Final?  None other than the CALGARY FLAMES!!!!!!! Just kidding (though I'd love it if that happened).  My pick for the Western Conference Champion is the San Jose Sharks, which explains why Ryane Clowe is with Kessel on that picture up there.  Why Ryane Clowe?  Only because he has the awesomest name ever!

Since I've already shared my forty cents on the Leafs, it's the Sharks' turn to be in the spotlight.  Yay.

I've been raving about how good the Sharks look ever since they exchanged (only current roster players are considered, which is why these exchanges look so bad for the Wild) Dany Heatley, Devin Setoguchi, and... that's it, for Brent Burns, Martin Havlat, and James Sheppard (who?).  In that flurry of trades, the Sharks upgraded the only two things they needed upgrades in: Defense and Speed.  The Wild got some considerable firepower, which is something they really lacked, but beyond that... their defense looks downright terrible now.
Martin Havlat may not quite have the offensive prowess of Dany Heatley (at least not the goalscoring aspect, though you wouldn't know from last season) but, unlike Heater, Havlat is quite good defensively.  He also happens to be one of the finer skaters in the league, whereas Heatley... isn't.
Though the Sharks already possessed one of the deeper groups of defensemen in the league, they added a considerable amount to the high-end in Brent Burns.  When a player like Burns is your second best dman... that's a good position to be in.  I'm sure Dan Boyle appreciated the move, since he was, quite literally, doing it all for this team last season.  He saw the toughest competition, the most powerplay time, a lot of penalty kill time, AND put up 50 points.  Not bad for a 35 year old.  Somehow, he's one of the most underrated defensemen in the NHL.  I'm not sure how that happened.  It's always the guys like Boyle and Mark Streit... ahem, anyway.  When your supporting cast looks like Douglas Murray, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Jason Demers, Colin White, Jim Vandermeer, and Justin Braun... well, let's just say GM Doug Wilson knows what he's doing.
I've said this many times, (but never here) but the Sharks also have probably the best top 6 forward group in the league (yes, that includes Vancouver).  Last season, Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski, Ryane Clowe, and Dany Heatley all put up more than 62 points.  It's worth noting that Havlat did too.  Rookie Logan Couture wasn't too far off with 56, including 32 goals.  That's 6 players with 1st line production.  6.  2 lines worth of 1st line forwards.  Pretty good, if I do say so myself.  It's worth noting that several (Couture, Pavelski, Clowe, Havlat) are also worthy hard-minutes players.

Goaltending isn't exactly their strong-suit, but Antti Niemi is about as consistent as they come.  He's one of those guys who just never seems to have a bad game, and most of the time he looks like an, at worst, average starter.

So, to conclude with the prediction:
WEST CHAMP: San Jose
Strengths: beyond elite top 6 forwards; stupefying defensive depth; good mix of defensively responsible forwards, and Power/Power capability on the top line.
Weaknesses: they're still not a fast team; goaltending isn't the best; bottom 6 forwards are dangerously close to fringe outside Michal Handzus and perhaps Torrey Mitchell.

EAST CHAMP: Toronto
Strengths: talented and diverse defense; team speed; Kessel is a natural goalscorer, and can be a gamebreaker when he feels like it; goaltending with Reimer is solid.
Weaknesses: they've been riding some cushy percentages to this point in the season; short on defensive injury replacements; hard minutes forwards.

THE VICTOR: San Jose, 6 games, 1st championship.
Series Breakdown:
Toronto wins game 1 in overtime (2-1).  Shockingly, it's Colton Orr with the goal (he also sunk the Flyers in game 7 of the Eastern final).  Kessel and Couture with regulation goals.  Orr could have gotten a Gordie Howe Hat-Trick if the hockey gods had been willing, as he tried to goad Ryane Clowe into a fight numerous times over the course of the game.  He also nearly got an assist on a scoring chance for Mike Brown in the 3rd period.

San Jose dominates game 2... but still loses.  James Reimer makes 40 saves for the shutout.  Clarke MacArthur gets the goal in the 1st period after some great work by Mikhail Grabovsky off the rush.  The Leafs were very lucky on this one, as a Grabovsky pass went off the heel of Nikolai Kulemin's stick, off the skate of a back-checking Joe Pavelski, and straight onto MacArthur's stick.  His seeing-eye shot eludes Niemi, flying right under his blocker after somehow finding a way though colossal defenseman Douglas Murray.

The Sharks pick up where they left off, dominating possession.  This time, they're rewarded, and come away with an easy 7-0 victory.  Niemi is solid when he actually faces the puck, but is only forced to make 18 saves.  Thornton with a hat-trick, Havlat with 4 points (2-2-4), Clowe scores game-winning goal (1-3-4), and Torrey Mitchell pots an empty netter.

Game 4 goes to the Sharks in a much closer contest, winning 3-2 to tie the series.  Logan Couture's 2nd of the series at 19:57 of the 3rd period keeps the game from going to overtime.  Other goals (all in 1st period, and all on PP) to defensemen Dion Phaneuf, Jake Gardiner, Dan Boyle, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic.

The Sharks take their 3rd straight win in dramatic fashion, as the score remains deadlocked at 0-0 going into overtime.  John-Michael Liles almost wins it, but his shot rings off the post right onto the stick of Brent Burns. He finds fellow former Wild Martin Havlat at the opposing blueline, and a tipped pass eludes Mike Komisarek and goes straight to Ryane Clowe, who roofs it behind James Reimer for the win.

Game 6 goes to the Sharks, of course.  The game is a goaltender's duel, going into triple overtime deadlocked at 2-2 on goals by John-Michael Liles (2), Patrick Marleau, and Joe Pavelski.  Toronto(and Wild) fans groan when the game finally ends, as Dion Phaneuf's stick explodes on an attempted one-timer, and Martin Havlat jumps on the loose puck.  The Sharks go 3 on 1 the other way, and a pretty passing play between Havlat and Joe Thornton undresses the one defenseman back (Carl Gunnarsson) and results in a final pass to Brent Burns sneaking in on the back door.  His five-hole shot eludes Reimer, and the Sharks win Lord Stanley's mug.

Joe Thornton hoists the Conn Smythe Trophy.

* I don't actually think the series will go exactly like I say.  That would be crazy though.

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